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Development Prospect and Scale Forecast of China's Lithium Battery Industry in the Next Five Years



Lithium battery is a kind of battery that uses lithium metal or lithium alloy as the negative electrode material and uses non-aqueous electrolyte solution. It is the battery with the highest energy density and the best comprehensive performance in secondary battery technology. Its market share has been increasing year by year since its birth. promote. Compared with other rechargeable batteries, lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high voltage, long life, and no memory effect. Lithium-ion batteries have occupied the main market for consumer electronics batteries such as mobile phones and notebook computers. In the future, with the further improvement of lithium battery production technology and battery performance, they will occupy the main market for energy storage batteries, power batteries and other fields. In 2016, the output of lithium batteries in China reached 7.842 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Then this article will briefly analyze the development prospect and scale forecast of China's lithium battery industry in the next five years.

(1) Favorable factors

1. The introduction of industry standards and norms

In recent years, charging treasures and mobile power supplies have developed rapidly, and the market is booming, with a very wide range of application groups. Due to the low entry barriers for mobile power supplies and the lack of mandatory implementation standards in the industry, the quality of products varies, and safety accidents involving spontaneous combustion and explosions of mobile power supplies are not uncommon. my country's first mandatory standard for lithium-ion batteries - "Safety Requirements for Lithium-ion Batteries and Battery Packs for Portable Electronic Products" was officially implemented on August 1, 2015. This standard is conducive to the healthy development of the lithium battery industry.

In order to strengthen the management of the lithium-ion battery industry, improve the level of industry development, guide industrial transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the lithium-ion battery industry, on August 31, 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions". The document regulates industrial layout and project establishment, production scale and process technology, product quality and performance, comprehensive utilization of resources and environmental protection, safety management, hygiene and social responsibility, supervision and management, etc.

In November 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Comprehensive Standardization Technology System for Lithium-ion Batteries", setting a future goal, that is, by 2020, the technical level of lithium-ion battery standards will reach the international level, and initially form a scientific and reasonable, technologically advanced, coordinated supporting system. Lithium-ion battery comprehensive standardization technical system, formulated and revised 80 standards, of which 70 were newly formulated (3 mandatory standards, 67 recommended standards), and 10 recommended standards were revised, which generally met the development needs of the lithium-ion battery industry . This document plays an important role in promoting the healthy and orderly development of the lithium-ion battery industry and further improving the standards to guide, standardize and lead the development of the industry.

2. Growth driven by new energy vehicles

In 2012, the State Council discussed and passed the "Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", which clarified the main strategic orientation of pure electric drive as the transformation of the automobile industry, popularized non-plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and The goal of exceeding 5 million vehicles by 2020 was proposed. The introduction of the "Plan" virtually outlines a huge market outline for the power battery industry, the core component of energy-saving and new energy vehicles.

In July 2014, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", again emphasizing the development of new energy vehicles as a national strategy.

The rationalization and introduction of the long-term mechanism for the development of new energy vehicles will promote the future explosion of the industry. Mechanisms such as replacing subsidies with penalties and replacing subsidies with rewards will be the long-term driving force for the new energy vehicle industry after the complete withdrawal of subsidies. Benefiting from the continuous growth of new energy vehicles, the lithium battery industry has ushered in a new round of development opportunities.

3. Commercial and large-scale development of energy storage industry

In June 2014, the State Council issued the "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)", which introduced energy storage into national energy planning for the first time, proposed to strengthen the overall planning of power supply and power grid, and scientifically arrange peak shaving, frequency regulation, and energy storage Supporting capabilities to effectively solve the problems of abandoning wind, water and light.

On June 7, 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Promoting Electric Energy Storage's Participation in the Pilot Work of the Electric Auxiliary Service Compensation (Market) Mechanism in the "Three North" Region", which established the status of electric energy storage as an independent market entity for the first time. It is clarified that electric energy storage participates in frequency regulation and peak regulation auxiliary market services. The new policy will accelerate the commercialization of the energy storage industry by improving the compensation mechanism for the auxiliary service market.

Energy storage technology is a strategic support for the transformation of future energy structure and the transformation of power production and consumption patterns. Driven by the development of energy storage technology and commercialization trends, power lithium batteries, as one of the protagonists of the new energy industry, will also usher in new opportunities for development. The large-scale development of energy storage will promote the extension and integration of the lithium battery industry chain, promote the connection between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the power lithium battery industry and capital, synchronize with the market, and achieve win-win cooperation.

4. The market share of Chinese enterprises expands

After more than ten years of development, the global lithium-ion battery industry has basically formed a three-point pattern among China, Japan and South Korea. China, South Korea, and Japan have their own characteristics in the competition in the lithium-ion battery market, and the three-point world has been maintained and will continue to be maintained for a considerable period of time.

     For Chinese power battery companies, under the protection of policies, they are becoming bigger and stronger. For example, in the 2016 global lithium battery sales ranking list, 15 of the top 20 are occupied by Chinese companies; among the only 6 companies with annual sales of tens of billions of yuan, 3 are from China, and 3 are from South Korea. 2, 1 in Japan.

(2) Unfavorable factors

1. Poor security

In the development process of lithium batteries, due to the different positive and negative electrode materials and their formulations, unsafe problems such as explosion and combustion have occurred many times. On the one hand, when the user is using it, the short circuit is caused by the incorrect use method, resulting in combustion and explosion. On the other hand, the chemical properties of lithium ions are very active. With the cooperation of graphite negative electrodes, once high temperature occurs, it is easy to explode and burn. Therefore, manufacturers usually install lithium battery protection plates inside the battery to protect the battery. However, some brand-name batteries are very different from brand-name batteries in terms of raw materials and assembly processes, and the quality of the circuits and protection boards used is not high, and it is easy to be natural after aging.

2. Economic environment

In 2015, the global economic recovery was slow, and China's economic structure was divided, micro-variation, and turmoil intensified. In 2016, China's economy will continue to bottom out. Affected by macroeconomics and national policies, business risks in downstream applications of the lithium battery industry have led to increased bad debt risks, which may affect the development of the industry.

In addition, there are unfavorable phenomena such as repeated investment in production capacity and disorderly competition in the lithium battery industry, which is not conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the industry.

3. The overseas market share is not high

The reason for the strong rise of Chinese battery companies is that China is the world's largest new energy vehicle market (in 2016, the production of Chinese electric vehicle brands accounted for 50% of the world, and it is still soaring), and there is policy support. Overseas, it is still dominated by Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI, whose market share is as high as 76%.

Compared with domestic manufacturers, international giants have relatively large advantages in terms of battery consistency, stability, and cycle life, and are also very attractive to downstream OEMs.

4. Environmental issues

The pollution of the lithium battery itself is not serious, but during the extraction and smelting process, chemical substances such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and polypropylene diethylene will be produced, which will pollute the environment.

Compared with other batteries, lithium batteries have less pollution to the environment, so fewer companies recycle waste lithium batteries. However, discarded lithium batteries contain a large amount of non-renewable metal resources with high economic value, such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, copper, aluminum, etc. If the discarded or substandard lithium batteries can be effectively recycled, it will not only reduce the waste battery The pressure on the environment can also avoid the waste of metal resources such as cobalt and nickel.

(3) China's lithium-ion battery production forecast

In 2016, China's lithium-ion battery output was 7.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%; from January to June 2017, the output reached 4.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%. According to the "2017-2021 China Lithium Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report" released by China Investment Consulting, it is estimated that China's lithium-ion battery production will reach 9.6 billion in 2017, and the annual average compounding in the next five years (2017-2021) The growth rate is about 17.73%, and China's lithium-ion battery output will reach 18.5 billion in 2021.

(4) Forecast of sales revenue of lithium-ion batteries in China

According to the statistical analysis of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the sales revenue of lithium-ion batteries in China reached 133 billion yuan in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 35%. According to the "2017-2021 China Lithium Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report" released by CIC Consulting, it is estimated that in 2017, China's lithium-ion battery sales revenue will reach 164.9 billion yuan, and the annual average in the next five years (2017-2021) The compound growth rate is about 18.24%. In 2021, China's lithium-ion battery sales revenue will reach 322.3 billion yuan.

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